The Golden Visa Is Gone, But Portugal's Smartest Property Investors Are Thriving

A market analysis: Why the end of the GV was a gift, and how a different class of investor is building wealth where others see a dead end

It's been well over a year since Portugal's 'Mais Habitação' (More Housing) law ended the Golden Visa for real estate.

For most foreign investors, that was the end of the story. The news spread, full of headlines about 'market cooling' and 'investment restrictions,' and a narrative set in: the opportunity was gone.

In reality, only the speculative boom has ended. The investor's opportunity has just begun.

For years, the Golden Visa was a distraction. It was a costly program that, while beneficial for some, also blinded many buyers to where the real value in this market truly lies. Now that the hype has faded, a different group of investors is quietly succeeding.

They are doing this because they follow one simple principle: they don't just buy value; they create it.

The "Golden Visa" Price Trap

The €500,000 minimum for the Golden Visa created an artificial price floor. This isn't to say beautiful, traditional homes weren't bought. They were.

However, the program's structure also fueled a market for generic new-builds, often sold at a significant "Golden Visa premium." The primary focus for many became "does this property qualify me for the visa?" rather than "is this a good long-term asset?"

Many buyers I speak with are still focused on finding that perfect, finished, turnkey property. A different, more experienced group of buyers is succeeding because they are focused on two entirely different strategies.

Strategy 1: The "Value-Add" Strategy

The first, and most common, approach is to force equity by upgrading a property. Instead of buying a finished product at a premium, these buyers purchase properties with "good bones" in great locations.

This isn't just theory; it's a proven financial formula.

A buyer acquires a dated apartment at a price well below the market rate for a new home. They then invest a separate, controlled amount in a smart, high-quality upgrade.

The key is that the final market value of the transformed property is significantly higher than the total combined cost (the initial purchase plus the upgrades).

This investor hasn't just bought a home; they have actively created substantial equity, securing a top-tier asset with a built-in profit margin from day one.

This strategy is then amplified by a tool that many investors completely overlook: the Urban Rehabilitation Area (ARU). These are special zones, covering most historic city centers, created by the government to encourage this exact kind of urban renewal. For an investor who knows to specifically target an ARU property, the benefits are massive:

• A reduced VAT of 6% (down from 23%) on all materials and labor for the project.
• Exemption from Property Transfer Tax (IMT) on the purchase.
• Exemption from annual Property Tax (IMI) for 3 to 5 years after the project is complete.

This is a clear example of how experienced investors use local knowledge to gain a financial edge that others miss.

Strategy 2: Anticipating Infrastructure Growth

The second, more powerful, strategy is to invest where the infrastructure is going, not where it already is.

In a city like Lisbon, this means looking beyond the existing metro map. The public often focuses on areas that already have good transport, but by the time a station is well-established, the price growth has already happened.

The forward-thinking investor, however, is analyzing the city's official infrastructure and metro expansion plans.

Major new projects are underway to connect new parts of the city and bring historic, vibrant neighborhoods onto the metro line for the first time. For example, the long-awaited metro expansion to the major Alcântara district is now moving forward, set to begin work in December 2025. These are established, desirable areas that have always been slightly undervalued due to their lack of a direct metro connection.

Past projects clearly show that properties in an area earmarked for a future station see a significant jump in value as the project moves toward completion.

This is the definition of a strategic investment: acquiring a property today in an area that is on the clear path of progress.

The Government's New Strategy

This shift is not an accident. The government has replaced the "blunt" incentive of the Golden Visa with "smart" incentives to solve the housing issue.

We discussed the ARU benefits for upgrading older homes. Now, the market is watching the next move: the plan to reduce VAT on new construction from 23% to 6%, set to begin in 2026 as part of the "Construir Portugal" (Build Portugal) program.

This confirms the new focus: the government wants to incentivize creating new housing supply (both through modernization and new builds), not just paying high prices for existing stock.

The "Smarter Visa" Is the Anchor

This is how it all ties together. Investors no longer need the €500k Golden Visa. They are using faster, cheaper, and more flexible solutions like the D7 Visa (for passive income) or the D8 Visa (for remote work).

These are stable, predictable thresholds based on the local economy, not an arbitrary, high-investment barrier.

Both of these visas require the applicant to have accommodation in Portugal. Owning and upgrading a property -especially one in an area targeted for growth - makes you the ideal applicant. It proves you are a committed, long-term resident who is actively investing in the country's future.

Stop Reading Last Year's News

Portugal's property market is not dead; it has simply matured.

The end of the Golden Visa was a gift. It cleared out the speculators and made room for the creators. The most experienced investors aren't leaving; they are analyzing the new data and focusing on fundamentals.

They know the secret: Don't buy what's finished. Buy what has potential. And buy where the future is going.